Year	Forecast	Observed	Residual observed
1984	10	13	1.956372102
1985	11	11	-0.987954246
1986	8	6	-3.1549752
1987	8	7	-2.1549752
1988	11	12	0.012045754
1989	7	11	2.789351149
1990	11	14	2.012045754
1991	8	8	-1.1549752
1992	8	7	-2.1549752
1993	11	8	-3.987954246
1994	9	7	-3.099301549
1995	12	19	6.067719405
1996	10	13	1.956372102
1997	11	8	-3.987954246
1998	10	14	2.956372102
1999	14	12	-2.820933293
2000	12	15	2.067719405
2001	12	15	2.067719405
2002	11	12	0.012045754
2003	14	16	1.179066707
2004	14	15	0.179066707
2005	15	28	12.23474036
2006	17	10	-7.653912339
2007	17	15	-2.653912339
2008	15	16	0.234740358
2009	11	9	-2.987954246
2010	18	19	0.401761312
2011	16	19	2.29041401
2012	14	19	4.179066707
2013	18	14	-4.598238688
2014	10	8	-3.043627898
2015	8	11	1.8450248