Lovers

http://psp.sagepub.com/content/25/11/1417.abstract

"Excessive optimism can also blind us to real risks," I note in the Personality chapter. "Neil Weinstein (1980, 1982, 1996) has shown how our natural positive-thinking bias can promote an unrealistic optimism about future life events. Most college students perceive themselves as less likely than their average classmate to develop drinking problems, drop out of school, or have a heart attack by age 40."

In a study to be published in the Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, Tara MacDonald ( University of Lethbridge) and Michael Ross ( University of Waterloo) demonstrate illusory optimism in people's beliefs about themselves. Focusing on the positives of the relationship, dating couples tend to feel confident that they will always be lovers. But MacDonald and Ross report from studies with Waterloo students that friends and family often know better, making predictions about the relationship that are both less optimistic and more accurate.

The illusory optimism finding isn't novel. In an earlier survey by L. A. Baker and R. E. Emery, 137 marriage license applicants accurately estimated that half of marriages end in divorce. Yet, most assessed their chance of divorce as zero percent. But what's striking in this study is the better predictive accuracy of someone close to us than we generally are of ourselves. Those of us who have seen someone close to us lunge confidently into an ill-fated relationship against our advice can nod yes.